In a world obsessed with certainty, the ability to make good decisions without guaranteed outcomes is a superpower. This is the core premise of Thinking in Bets, the groundbreaking book by former World Series of Poker champion Annie Duke.
Reading this book in PDF/digital format offers specific advantages: thinking in bets annie duke pdf
Most of us are trained to evaluate decisions based on results. If a good result happens, we assume it was a good decision. If a bad result happens, we assume it was a bad decision. Annie Duke calls this "resulting" —and it is a logical fallacy. Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke: The PDF
Then track calibration: over 100 predictions where you said 70%, you should be right ~70 times. If a good result happens, we assume it was a good decision
Duke, A. (2018). Thinking in bets: Making smarter decisions when it matters most. Penguin.
In contrast, "thinking in bets" involves adopting a probabilistic mindset, where we consider multiple possible outcomes and assign probabilities to each. This approach acknowledges that uncertainty is inherent in many decision-making situations and encourages us to think in terms of ranges of possible outcomes, rather than single, definitive outcomes. By doing so, we can make more nuanced, informed, and flexible decisions that take into account the complexities and uncertainties of the situation.
In poker, you never know your opponent’s cards. You never know what the next community card will be. You make decisions with partial data, and the same decision can lead to a win or a loss purely because of luck.